Sevexity

Bitcoin has no budget speech

sevexity

Reading through the reporting on the MTBPS delivered by Tito Mboweni, I can’t help but think of all the people who claim that bitcoin won’t work because “it isn’t backed by anything.” (there are still people who think this is a valid argument).

One looks at bitcoin with its mathematically predictable and immutable monetary policy and compare it to the South African Rand which is “backed” by proven dogmatic socialists (read: communists) who refuse to get pragmatic in the face of the abyss of a fiscal cliff, and you can’t help but wonder who the crazy person in this equation is?

Just compare this:

To this:

“With revenue collection by the SA Revenue Service (Sars) set to be R53bn less than the figure in February, bringing under-collection since 2018/ 2019 to R110bn, the budget deficit will balloon to 5.9% in the current fiscal year, averaging 6.2% over the next three years compared with the 4.2% forecast in February.

Debt as a percentage of GDP, which the government had previously predicted would peak at just more than 60% in 2023/2024, is now expected to climb to 71.3% a year earlier.

For context, when Trevor Manuel delivered his last budget in 2009, the ratio was just 23%.”

Look, an increase in government debt is barely a South African phenomenon, and on international standards we’re still pretty conservative, but even with that in mind, you’re still at best, the tallest dwarf in a world of pretty indebted dwarfs. Add to this that other countries who increased debt, at least had some form of growth thanks to their borrowing from future generations, and South Africa quickly comes down to average length in debt dwarf world.

Treasury has cut estimated GDP growth for 2019 from 1.9% to 0.5% as the effects of cutting spending on growth projects to fund the monopoly that is supposed to simply keep the fucking lights on takes hold. So, all this additional debt, and no corresponding growth in prosperity except for the public sector whose wage bill we as private South Africans get to fund while they bureaucratically run us into the ground.

All of this had its effect on the Rand, and my bitcoin is now worth 2.5% more in ZAR terms than it was before yesterday.

All in all, yesterday was a good day for the dude who decided to take the man out of his money and replace him with math. And as I look at the socialists throwing the people’s money after every problem, I can’t help but feel confident in my pair trade of long bitcoin, short the ZAR.

Is this good for bitcoin? Yes.

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