I keep a watchful eye over the South African financial twittersphere. Every now and then bitcoin gets a mention, almost always in a derogatory fashion. The stewards of your capital in South Africa are still laughing at the best performing asset over the last 10 years.
This is the performance of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GTBTC), which I use as a proxy, compared to some of the top performing shares in SA over the last three years. That’s after crash of almost 80% in the BTC price. They keep laughing.
But I get it though. How can you invest in something that produces no cash flows and can’t be put into an excel spreadsheet model in order to calculate its “fair” value? How can you go against everything you’ve learned throughout your career and speculate on something when you’ve been repeatedly taught that speculation is a dirty word?
I remember the first time I invested money into bitcoin. I was reading “Margin of safety” by Seth Klarman – and all I could think of when I bought bitcoin was how I was going against everything that I had ever read and been taught. But luckily for me, I was still early into my schooling as an investor (still am).
For these managers, it’s too late. They’ve been doing things in a certain way for a very long time. And over time they have learned what works and what doesn’t. And for the most part they are right. But, famous last words, this time it’s different. Bitcoin is different. What’s happening right in front of our eyes is something we haven’t seen before: the monetization of a new form of money. It will need new tools, new methods, and new thinking. Something these managers are incentivized never to do. And that’s ok. Remember that they will be the ones sitting on the sidelines because it’s too much of a career risk to own any bitcoin.
Until it isn’t. Until it becomes a career risk not to own any.
And then the rush to the small door will be interesting to watch, provided you as an individual took the responsibility to stack sats. Because ultimately, this is your responsibility. You have to be the one to manage this transition, because your money managers won’t.
Is this good for bitcoin? Yes.